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I no longer endorse all the statements in this document. I think many of the conclusions are still correct, but especially section 1 is weaker than it should be, and many reactionaries complain I am pigeonholing all of them as agreeing with Michael Anissimov, which they do not; this complaint seems reasonable. This document needs extensive revision to stay fair and correct, but such revision is currently lower priority than other major projects.
Until then, I apologize for any inaccuracies or misrepresentations. It is meant to rebut some common beliefs held by the political movement called Reaction or Neoreaction.
What are the common beliefs of the political movement called Reaction or Neoreaction? Neoreaction is a political ideology supporting a return to traditional ideas of government and society, especially traditional monarchy and an ethno-nationalist state. It sees itself opposed to modern ideas like democracy, human rights, multiculturalism, and secularism.
Some but not all. I worry I may have done too good a job of steelmanning Reactionary positions in that post, emphasizing what I thought were strong arguments, sometimes even correct arguments, but not really the arguments Reactionaries believed or considered most important.
Some of them seem really dumb to me and I excluded them from the previous piece, but they make it in here. Other points from the previous post are real Reactionary beliefs and make it in here as well. Even more confusingly, sometimes the same people seem to switch among the three without giving any indication they are aware that they are doing so. In particular the difference between feudal monarchies and divine-right-of-kings monarchies seems to be sort of lost on many of them.
Mencius is probably the most famous Reactionary, one of the founders of the movement, and an exceptionally far-thinking and knowledgeable writer.
Michael is also quite smart, very prolific, and best of all for my purposes unusually willing to state Reactionary theories plainly and explicitly in so many words and detail the evidence that he thinks supports them. Mencius usually supports a state-as-corporation model and Michael seems to be more to the feudal monarchy side, with both occasionally paying lip service to divine-right-of-kings absolutism as well.
One of the problems in exercises like this is how much to take political labels seriously. Both combine many very diverse ideas, and sometimes exactly who falls on what side will be exactly the point at issue.
Although debating the meaning of category words is almost never productive, I feel like in that case I have more than enough excuse. It is a staple of Reactionary thought that everything is getting gradually worse.
As traditional ideas cede to their Progressive replacements, the fabric of society tears apart on measurable ways. The present system has every incentive to portray itself as superior to all past systems. Reactionaries point out this is not the case, and actually see present society in a state of severe decline, pointing to historically high levels of crime, suicide, government and household debt, increasing time preference, and low levels of civic participation and self-reported happiness as a few examples of a current cultural and historical crisis.
Reactionaries usually avoid getting this specific, and with good reason. Now that Michael has revealed the domains in which he is critiquing modern society, we can start to double-check them to see whether Progressivism has indeed sent everything to Hell in a handbasket. But I must set some strict standards here.
To support the Reactionary thesis, I will want to see long-term and unmistakeable negative trends in these indicators. Nearly all Reactionaries agree that the advance of Progressivism has been a long-term affair, going on since the French Revolution if not before. I will not require a completely monotonic downward trend, but neither will I accept a blip of one or two years in a generally positive trend as proving all modern civilization is bankrupt.
Likewise, if something has been getting worse in Britain but not the United States, or vice versa, that will not suffice either. Progressivism is supposed to be a worldwide movement, stronger than the vagaries of local politics.
What evidence have the Reactionaries cite for their side? Michael cites a New York Times article pointing out that suicide rates rose from to Apparently my new job is reminding Reactionaries that they cannot blindly trust New York Times articles to give them the whole truth.
Suicide rates did rise from to As we mentioned above, since Reactionaries believe that Progressivism has been advancing simultaneously in many different countries it is worthwhile to check whether other nations show the same trends as the United States. If every country that was becoming more Progressive showed increased suicide rates, this would be strong evidence that Progressivism were to blame.
But if some Progressive countries experienced lower suicide rates, that would suggest country-specific problems. In Britain, we find not only that suicide has generally been going down for the past thirty years, but that — as predicted above — there is a bit of an upward tick corresponding with the Great Recession.
Even better, we find that suicide peaked in Britain in — just after the Victorian period — and has been declining ever since.
I try to be nice. But I will say it — the Reactionary argument that suicide has been increasing during modernity from a low during some fantasized Victorian Golden Age is unacceptably shoddy. Here again the Reactionaries overstate their case. Michael tried to support his point with…. Keep yourself honest by taking those steps, and the situation looks more like this:. To his credit, Michael fixed this when I pointed it out. This very broad term introduces no fewer than three dangerous biases.
First, we have reporting bias — the more police there are and the more active there are, the more crimes get heard about and reported. Second, we have definition bias within individual crimes — for example, larceny in Britain fell by two thirds in , but this was because Parliament passed a law raising the minimum amount of property that had to be larcened for it to count.
The murder rate tends to track the crime rate in general. And murder is less subject to changes in definition — dead is dead.
Alas, I can only find the numbers since rather than All his other statistics make reference to American numbers. Why does he suddenly switch to Britain when we talk about crime? I can, however, find longer-term homicide data:. We see ups and downs but no general pattern. In any case, right now we seem to be enjoying a 50 year low.
And lest someone bring up that medical technology has advanced enough to turn many would-be murders into attempted murders — which is true — aggravated assaults, the category of crime that would encompass attempted murders, are less than half of what they were twenty years ago.
Kind of hard to square with everything getting worse and more violent all the time. Actually, stopping at is for losers. But the Victorian Era had amazingly low crime rates! People could walk out in any corner of the country unmolested!
Crime was basically a half-forgotten memory! He cites approvingly an s British text which says that. Meanwhile, it may with little fear of contradiction be asserted that there never was, in any nation of which we have a history, a time in which life and property were so secure as they are at present in England. The sense of security is almost everywhere diffused, in town and country alike, and it is in marked contrast to the sense of insecurity which prevailed even at the beginning of the present century.
There are, of course, in most great cities, some quarters of evil repute in which assault and robbery are now and again committed. There is perhaps to be found a lingering and flickering tradition of the old sanctuaries and similar resorts.
But any man of average stature and strength may wander about on foot and alone, at any hour of the day or the night, through the greatest of all cities and its suburbs, along the high roads, and through unfrequented country lanes, and never have so much as the thought of danger thrust upon him, unless he goes out of his way to court it.
Reactionaries take this idea and run with it — past societies were so well-organized that they had completely eliminated crime, whereas our own democratic government turns a blind eye while thousands of people are beaten and mugged and murdered and….
So what was the Victorian murder rate? Homicide is regarded as a most serious offence and it is probably reported more than other forms of crime.
Between and , there were rarely more than homicides reported to the police each year, and during the s the average was below In Victorian England, the homicide rate reached 2 per , of the population only once, in Generally, it was about 1. These figures do not take into account the significant number of infanticides that went undetected. The statistics for homicide are therefore probably closer to the real level of the offence.
So, Victorian murder rate of between 1 and 2 per , people. And the current British murder rate? But if the Victorian crime rate was as high or higher than it is today, how come Victorians felt completely safe and thought that crime had been eradicated? But in this case that turns out to be explaining away a nonproblem. The Victorians were absolutely terrified of crime and thought they were in the middle of a gigantic crime wave. Violent attacks by strangers were seen as grave cause for concern.
There were garroting panics in and , in part because of extensive press coverage. Press reports of garroting increased dramatically, and the public quickly became convinced there was a serious problem.
Garroting panic was so rampant that it became a topic of satire: Punch published several cartoons of men running from their own shadows or from trees that they were convinced were garrotters. Crimes of violence were perceived to be on the increase in the s and panic set in when an outbreak of garrotting occurred in various parts of the country in the period from to Garrotting involved choking, suffocating, or strangling a victim. During these years, Punch magazine carried a whole series of cartoons and lengthy jokes about the crime, including many eccentric means of defense.
This was a steel collar to be hand-fitted round the neck with a large number of sharp steel spikes pointing outwards. Despite such bizarre forms of protection, the offence caused a great deal of fear among the public and it was generally regarded as a very serious threat to law and order. Letters to The Times began to appear from gentlemen who had been so attacked and robbed. In response the judges began to order severe floggings in addition to penal servitude in an attempt to stem the growth of the crime.
Their example was then followed by Parliament which, against the wishes of the government, enacted the Security From Violence Act I guess it all depends on your perspective. Some people just live sheltered existences. But apparently most other Americans agree with me.
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